Overhyping the A.I. Moment, Underhyping the Future of Learning
You’ve probably heard someone say, “Everything needs to change in education! Overhaul the entire system!”
Maybe you’ve heard that sentiment from many people over the years. I know I have.
It irks me for many reasons, but maybe the biggest reason is: As a teacher, or school leader, I never had any ability to “overhaul” the system even if I wanted to.
I could make changes, and innovate inside the box. But, changing everything was never an option.
An overwhelming majority of the teachers I’ve worked with want to do what is best for kids.
Schools, as institutions are set up with the mission to help students learn, grow, and be prepared for life as an adults.
Parents, too, want what is best for their kids.
If there were a big Venn Diagram, the middle would be: We want what is best for kids.
So here we are, once again, where the current hype around education is that A.I. is going to change everything. Or, because of artificial intelligence, we should go ahead and change the entire system.
While I agree some changes should be made across the board, we’ve been in this trap before (many times).
I see a gross overhyping of the “Generative A.I.” moment and a few serious misconceptions of what this means for the longer-term future of education.
Let’s dig in.
Overhyping The Moment
Ethan Mollick, Professor at UPenn’s Wharton School of Business, and author of Co-Intelligence: Living and Working With AI, has broken down four distinct future scenarios for life with Artificial Intelligence.
As Good as It Gets: In this scenario, AI technology ceases to make significant advances beyond the current state. Improvements are minimal, focusing only on incremental changes and slight enhancements to existing technologies.
Slow Growth: Here, AI continues to advance but at a much slower, more predictable rate. Instead of exponential growth, AI capabilities increase linearly. This slower pace allows society to adapt gradually to changes, integrating AI into various fields like therapy, scientific research, and entertainment without overwhelming societal structures.
Exponential Growth: AI technology progresses at an accelerating rate, far outpacing human ability to adapt. This scenario sees AI becoming significantly more capable within a short period, leading to profound changes in all aspects of life, including security, entertainment, and personal relationships. The rapid development may also increase risks associated with AI, such as enhanced hacking and misinformation campaigns.
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): In this scenario, AI reaches and surpasses human-level intelligence, leading to the emergence of machines that are not only as capable as humans but potentially far superior. This could result in the creation of superintelligence, radically transforming every aspect of society and human existence.
OpenAI. (2024). ChatGPT [Large language model]. /g/g-TcSx5BYQr-the-four-futures-planner
We are currently in the “As Good As It Gets” or “Slow Growth” scenario. Since the release of ChatGPT to the world on November 22, 2022, we have seen growth (but incremental at best).
Much of the current education-focused products are built on the backbone of ChatGPT (or other similarly trained LLMs) that use Generative AI to do all kinds of tasks for teachers, school systems, and students.
This is not to say that it has not been transformative.
But, what we are seeing right now is a lot of doing “old things in new ways” instead of doing “new things in better ways”.
You were making multiple-choice assessments before? Now you can make more of them, and faster.
You were creating rubrics before? Now you can make more rubrics tied to the standards, and much faster than doing it by yourself.
You were creating Slide presentations to use when lecturing? Now you can save a ton of time, and make them look nicer than before.
Is saving time a bad thing? Of course not.
Is making teaching more efficient something to get excited about in a world where more and more gets put on our plates? Yes, we should get excited.
But, we may be overhyping the moment, in the same way we did with the advent of social media, mobile devices, and Web 2.0.
Things I’ve Said…
I wish there wasn’t a running record of things I’ve said about technology in education over the last two decades, but between this blog, YouTube, and social media — there are many things I’ve said/predicted and been way wrong about!
It is easy to get caught up in the moment and get excited about the possibilities of a better education for our kids when a new technology comes along.
Sadly, Smartboards didn’t revolutionize learning. Some of my favorite Web 2.0 tools like Glogster don’t even exist anymore. And let’s not even get started on netbooks, or ez-grader, or a host of other tools that came along to transform education.
When a new technology like Artificial Intelligence starts being used in education and the workplace we often see three different camps:
Sit and wait it out: These folks know there is something changing, but until lots of people start using it with success, they’ll sit on the sidelines and watch.
Anti-Tech: Why would we change things? This is going to have damaging ramifications. I’m already doing fine with what we currently are doing. Stop the change and madness!
Pro-Tech: They are running full-steam using it and singing it’s praises. Everyone should get on board and wow, things are going to change quickly.
The “Rogers' diffusion model” can quickly identify this curve of innovation adoption.
Pro-tech are the innovators and early adopters. Sit-and-wait are the early and late majority. Anti-tech becomes the late majority and laggards.
Us early adopters (being me as well) tend to overhype a new technology early, while not truly understanding how it will impact society — and specifically education in our work.
This is not new.
It’s happened over the last two centuries with radio, television, computers, the internet, and now artificial intelligence.
However, regardless of the current “overhyping” about AI’s role in teaching and learning, it is going to have a massive impact (maybe later then we think).
In short, it is not going anywhere, and over the long-term it will have much bigger disruption to our current model then we can understand right now. If you don’t believe me watch this clip from 1994:
This might sound like many of the conversations that are happening today! What is an LLM anyway?
Often, a better way to talk and discuss A.I. is to look at the previous hinges of history that have transformed teaching and learning, and take the long view instead of the “what’s going to happen right now” approach.
The Future of Learning
Imagine a learning environment where teachers are much more like coaches. They provide direct instruction as needed, meet kids where they are, challenge when appropriate, support when appropriate, and are not overwhelmed with paperwork and endless meetings.
Imagine the same learning environment where students have access to tutors, are able to learn the fundamentals of math, reading, and other subjects — while also having the ability to explore connected topics in more depth.
The technology (artificial intelligence and others) will be there to support the fundamentals and the creative pursuits of deep learning.
Kids have the opportunity to go a more traditional path to college, or take alternative routes in the trades, or start an entrepreneurial journey.
You may think this seems far off? But, truth be told, it is already happening in schools around the country and world. Not just private schools like Alpha, but also public schools like Minnetonka.
As Director of Learning and Innovation at Centennial School District, I was so proud to see our students have opportunities like this in a school district with budget issues just like most places around the country!
I asked Ethan Mollick’s custom GPT focused on the Four Scenarios what K-12 education might look like in Scenario 3 and Scenario 4 in the future. The answer surprised me:
Scenario 3: Exponential Growth
In this scenario, where AI development progresses at a rapid pace, the following changes are likely to occur in K-12 education:
Personalized Learning: AI could tailor education to individual students' learning styles and needs at an unprecedented scale. Systems could adapt in real-time to students' progress, providing challenges just above their current level to optimize learning outcomes.
AI Tutors and Assistants: Each student might have an AI tutor, capable of assisting with homework, providing additional resources, and explaining complex concepts at any time of the day. These AI tutors could simulate one-on-one tutoring experiences, previously only available to the few.
Virtual and Augmented Reality: Classrooms could integrate virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) to provide immersive learning experiences. History classes could visit ancient Rome, while science classes could conduct experiments in simulated labs without any risk.
Automation of Administrative Tasks: AI could handle scheduling, grading, and other administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus more on teaching and less on bureaucracy.
Global Classroom: Students could interact with peers across the globe, participate in international projects, and gain exposure to different cultures and languages through AI-facilitated platforms.
Scenario 4: AGI
Once AI reaches and surpasses human-level intelligence, K-12 education might experience even more profound changes:
Curriculum Overhaul: With AGI, the curriculum might shift significantly to focus more on skills that are uniquely human, such as critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence, as cognitive tasks become increasingly managed by AI.
AI Co-teaching: AGI systems could serve as co-teachers, bringing expert-level knowledge to every classroom, capable of delivering personalized feedback and engaging students in ways that optimize their learning and motivation.
Ethical and Philosophical Education: Education systems might include new curricula focusing on ethics and philosophy, especially pertaining to technology and AI. Understanding AI and its implications could become as fundamental as reading and writing.
Decentralized Education: The traditional model of students attending a physical school might transform into more decentralized, networked approaches where learning happens in diverse environments, facilitated by AGI.
Lifelong Learning Integration: With the boundaries between schooling and lifelong learning blurring, AGI could facilitate seamless educational experiences that extend beyond K-12, preparing students for a future where continuous adaptation to new technologies is necessary.
In both scenarios, education would not just be about imparting knowledge but equipping students to navigate a world profoundly shaped by AI, fostering adaptability, ethical understanding, and a deep appreciation for human creativity and collaboration.
Educators preparing for the changes anticipated in scenarios 3 and 4—Exponential Growth and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—will need to focus on several key areas to stay ahead of the curve and ensure they remain effective and relevant. Here are some strategies:
1. Embrace Technology
Learn About AI: Educators should start by understanding the basics of AI and its applications in education. This could involve taking online courses, attending workshops, or participating in professional development focused on AI.
Experiment with EdTech Tools: Actively incorporate existing educational technology tools in the classroom. This hands-on experience with technology is crucial for understanding how AI can enhance teaching and learning.
2. Adapt Teaching Methods
Focus on Human Skills: Strengthen teaching approaches that foster critical thinking, creativity, empathy, and interpersonal skills. These are areas where humans will continue to excel over machines.
Use Blended Learning Models: Combine traditional teaching methods with digital platforms to create a blended learning environment that can easily adapt to more advanced technologies as they develop.
3. Update the Curriculum
Integrate AI Literacy: Include AI and technology education in the curriculum to ensure students are not only users of technology but also understand the mechanisms behind AI and its ethical implications.
Promote STEM Education: Encourage participation in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, which will be fundamental in an AI-driven world.
4. Foster a Culture of Continuous Learning
Professional Development: Regularly update personal and professional skills to keep pace with technological changes. This includes learning from peer networks and staying informed about the latest educational technologies.
Teach Adaptability: Educators should model and teach adaptability, preparing students for a future where change is the only constant.
5. Advocate for Equitable Access
Ensure Inclusivity: Work towards ensuring that AI tools are available to all students, including those from disadvantaged backgrounds. Advocate for policies that promote equitable access to technology.
Address Ethical Concerns: Be a leader in discussions on the ethical use of AI in education, ensuring that technologies are used to enhance educational outcomes without compromising student privacy or autonomy.
6. Collaborate and Network
Collaborate with Tech Experts: Engage with AI professionals and tech companies to stay ahead of developments and potentially influence how technologies are developed and deployed in educational settings.
Build Professional Networks: Connect with other educators who are interested in the use of AI in education to share resources, strategies, and insights.
I’d add a few more to this list:
Make sure not to over-rely on Tech: Regardless of a technology’s purpose, we don’t need to put it on the pedestal and can focus on human, social, meaning-centered learning experiences for all.
Scenario Planning: Engage in scenario planning exercises to discuss and anticipate various futures of education shaped by AI. This can help in creating flexible strategies that adapt to any changes the future holds.
We may be overhyping the moment, but when I look at the future of learning for my five kids, I see a different world they’ll live and work in, and a different education experience they’ll desperately need to thrive in that new reality.
